DEADLINE: 04 OCT 2014
There are three problems associated with the Week 4 and Week 5 lecture
and readings. Points will be deducted for late submissions.
1) A potentially huge hurricane is forming in the Caribbean and there
is some chance that it might make a direct hit on Isle of Palms, South
Carolina where you are director of emergency preparedness. You have
made plans for evacuating everyone from the island but such a strategy
is obviously costly and upsetting for everyone and the evacuation
decision should not be made lightly. Discuss how you would make such
as decision. IS EMV a relevant concept in the decision? Explain. How
would you evaluate the consequences of uncertain outcomes?
2) An investor has $10,000 to invest and several options: (1) Invest
in risk-free savings account with guaranteed 3% annual return rate;
(2) Invest in safe stick with possible rate of returns of 6, 8 or 10%;
or (3) invest in risky stock with annual return rates of 1, 9 or 17%.
The investor can place all funds in any one option or split $10,000
into two $5,000 investments in any two of the options. The joint
probability distributions of the possible return rates for the two
sticks is given in the provided data file below. You must create a
payoff table, use DecisionTree to identify the maximum strategy, and
perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision. The data file
that you need for this case is available here .
a) Create a payoff table that specifies the investor's return in
dollars in one year for each possible year and each outcome with
respect to the stick returns.
b) Use PrecisionTree to identify the strategy that maximizes the
investor's expected earning in one year from the given investment
c) Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting the
amount available to invest and the risk-free return rate both vary,
one at a time, plus or minus 100% from their base values and summarize
3) Pizza Kong (PK) and North Grog (NG) are competitive pizza chains.
PK believes there is a 25% chance that NG will charge $6 per pizza, a
50% chance that NG will charge $8 per pizza, and a 25% chance that NG
will charge $10 per pizza. If PK charges p1 and NG charges price p2 PK
will sell 100 + 25(p2 - p1) pizzas. It costs PK $4 to make a pizza. PK
is considering charging $5, $6, $7, $8 or $9 per pizza. To maximize
its expected profit, what price should PK charge for a pizza?
This problem is going to be done only with Excel. You will not create
a decision tree. The problem uses a number of concepts learned during
the first three weeks.
In order to tackle this problem you are going to set up an Excel
Spreadsheet to help in making the pricing decision. As you probably
have figured out by now, we need to use formulas in every possible
case in these spreadsheets. We also need to use the Data/What-if
Analysis/Data Table function that we learned in our Spreadsheet
Modeling: An Introduction handout from weeks 1 to 3 (see content
starting on A-14).
For this problem you are given prices and probabilities in terms of
what NG will charge, so you probably should enter that data. These
data are not based on formula so you just type in the values. You also
know PK's unit cost ($4) and price ($5) so you should enter these
The next part gets a bit tricky. You need to build an array depicting
PK's price depending on NG's price. So in one column, moving down, you
list NG's price. In the next column you need to use the demand
function (100+25(p2-p1)) to determine PK's demand. The final column
depicts PK's profit for each of NG's prices. I'll let you figure this
one out. Now develop the Expected PK Profit for this final column
using the SUMPRODUCT feature. This will give you a number that you
need to do the final step described next.
More info additional attached...........
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