Only apply if you are a excel "genius" and have a firm grasp of statistics.
For a school project, i have to be able to predict the outcome of a given match.
We will use solver and simulations (you probably need palisades decision tools suite) in excel to come to some sort of conclusion
Data will be extracted from [url removed, login to view] specifically the english premier league.
Data from soccernet starts from 2006/2007 season till 2009/2010.
The logic for something like this would go like :
Determine if team is in tier 1, 2, 3,4 or 5
this tier is predetermined by me/us
Tier 1 being the top 2 teams
Tier 2 the next 4
tier 3 the next 8
tier 4 the best 4 of bottom 8
tier 5 the bottom 4.
The logic for tiers would be tier 1 would be slightly likely to beat tier 2, more likely to beat tier 3, most likely to beat tier4 and should beat tier 5 when playing at home.
You shall come up with some sort of computation / formula here. (i have given you some broad idea here)
Look up table position (table position would assist in assertaining how strong the team is)
Look up past 3 results (goals scored/against, who opposition was)
look up past 6 results (same as above)
look up past 10 results (same as above)
compare results and come to some sort of prediction, who is more likely to win? what is probable score?
Is game played home or away? what is teams record when playing home/away?
look at home form (last 5 games)
look at home form (last 10 games)
look at away form of visitors (last 5 games)
look at away form of visitors (last 10 games)
home form (5 games) vs. visitors form (5 games)
home form (10 games) vs. visitors form (10 games)
compare results and come to some sort of prediction
I may have left out some other variables (and if you can think of them, please feel free to put them in)
To have some sort of template where i can enter the scores and the system would generate the prediction for the next round of games.
I will want to be also able to do back testing on previous seasons and to forecast how accurate this system is.
The parameters that are variable (that i can change are the tiers (moving the teams from one tier to another) and inputing the scores.
I hope this is clear enough, please feel free to email me for further enquiries.
8 freelancer bu iş için ortalamada 65$ teklif veriyor
Dear Sir i sure you that my work will satisfied you and this task will be arranged a long term relations with you. i hope you will be pleased with my work. i have the experience of that kind of work.
I am graduated. I am expert in using excel. I assure you, you will feal comfort with me. As I have a lot of experience with my job in excel using.