You are tasked to analyse the SGD/GBP exchange rate. A chart is given together with the a set of data in an Excel spread sheet. I need to know what the rate will be in the short future.
At the same time, you need to apply various theories/concepts that explain the movements in exchange rate. In addition, some forecasting techniques and tools as well.
Write a short 3000 words report to analyse the factors that affect the SGD/GBP exchange rate in recent times, develop an econometric model (single equation model) and use it to forecast the rate on the 20 October 2014 (1 month from now).
In order to complete this task, you need to explore and answer a few key issues:
1. Looking at the chart above, you wonder if Covered Interest Parity holds over time.
2. What theoretical framework will you use in your analysis? Should you apply the CIP, PPP, BoP model, partial supply and demand model, etc. separately or derived a model by combining theories and other relevant data, such as unemployment rate?
3. What period should you use for collecting the data for you analysis?
4. What sort of data you should collect for your analysis?
5. How to write an econometric equation that is based on your theoretical framework?
6. What are the dependent and independent variables in your econometric model?
7. Are there any current issues (qualitative data) that affect the SGD/GBP exchange rate and your econometric analysis?
8. Should you compliment your econometric analysis with technical analysis or other forecasting techniques?
9. What inferences can you draw from your analysis?
10. What are the limitations that you face in your analysis that may change your results?
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