Study on Policies ‘‘Carrot’’ or ‘‘stick’’, Economic Sanctions and The Success of Foreign Policy Goals: For Iran Case
Y = if (THREAT, CARROT, EXPORT, IMPORT, FINANCE, FDI, COSTGNP, COSTSEND, X) + u,
Y is the composite index ‘success score’ (SUCCESS), which is obtained by multiplying PRESULT with the index of ‘sanctions contribution’ (CONTR), defined as the contribution made by sanctions to a positive outcome, also scaled from 1 to 4. A summary of Hufbauer and Schott’s OLS results can be found in Appendix A, the dependent variable (DV) is HSE’s sanctions success score, a 16-point scale that is the product of a four-point policy success score and a four-point score of sanctions contribution to that success. Here, this 16-point scale is collapsed to 11 points as certain numbers (such as seven) are not possible as a product of two four-point scales. The THREAT, CARROT, EXPORT, IMPORT and FINANCE are dummy variables. If a sender state offered no positive inducements to the target in exchange for altering its behavior, CARROT variable should be coded as 0. However, if the sender offered concessions during the period in which sanctions were imposed, the variable should be coded as one, THREAT variable identifies whether or not a threat was issued in this sanctions case. The variable is coded as 1 if a threat was made, and 0 if no threat was identified and EXPORT, IMPORT, FINANCE and FDI are taking the value ONE if export, import, FDI or capital controls respectively are imposed. The variables COSTGNP and COSTSEND represent the total costs of these sanctions to target country and sender country, respectively.
Using Probit Regression Results for Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions (The Dependent Variable is a Dummy Variable=1 if a Sanction Occurred, 0 Otherwise)